EMERGING MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES IN THE U.S.–CHINA RIVALRY: IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA’S DEFENSE LANDSCAPE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35631/IJLGC.1143011Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence, ASEAN, Security Governance, Strategic Autonomy, U.S.–China RivalryAbstract
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a central driver of military transformation in both the United States and China, reshaping patterns of strategic competition and security governance. While existing studies largely examine AI’s implications for great-power rivalry, limited attention has been given to how AI-driven military competition affects Southeast Asia’s strategic autonomy and regional stability. This study addresses this gap by analysing how the diffusion of autonomous systems, surveillance technologies, and cyber capabilities influences ASEAN’s threat perceptions and strategic responses. The research adopts a qualitative design based on thematic and discourse analysis of selected defence policy documents, official strategies, and authoritative policy reports from the United States, China, and regional institutions. Documents were systematically coded to identify patterns related to governance frameworks, operational priorities, escalation risks, and regional dependencies. The findings indicate that AI-enabled military modernisation intensifies strategic rivalry, accelerates operational tempo, and increases the risks of miscalculation in contested maritime and digital domains. Most ASEAN states face persistent constraints, including limited technological capacity, uneven interoperability, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and reliance on external suppliers, which collectively narrow policy flexibility and strategic autonomy. The study contributes by providing one of the first region-focused analyses linking U.S.–China AI military competition to ASEAN’s strategic agency. Policy implications highlight the need for ASEAN to strengthen technological resilience, develop regionally aligned governance norms, and institutionalise confidence-building mechanisms for AI-enabled systems. Rather than remaining a reactive arena of great-power competition, ASEAN has the potential to shape regional rules, manage escalation risks, and act as a proactive stabilising actor in the evolving AI security landscape.
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