TECHNO-ECONOMIC AND AGRICULTURAL VIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF AGRIVOLTAIC SYSTEMS IN HOT ARID REGIONS: A SIMULATION-BASED CASE STUDY IN ASWAN, EGYPT

Abstract

Agrivoltaic systems are increasingly recognized as a dual-use strategy for combining crop production and photovoltaic electricity generation on the same land. However, their integrated technical, agricultural, and economic performance under the hot-arid conditions of southern Egypt remains insufficiently investigated. This study evaluates the viability of a tomato-based agrivoltaic system in Aswan, Egypt, using a comparative simulation framework based on a fixed land area of 1 hectare. A 70% photovoltaic-coverage scenario was used as the PV-only reference, while a 50% coverage scenario represented the agrivoltaic system. Photovoltaic performance and financial outcomes were simulated using the System Advisor Model (SAM), whereas tomato productivity was estimated through a literature-based approach using yield-reduction factors derived from published agrivoltaic experiments. Land-use productivity was assessed using the Land Equivalent Ratio (LER), while PV-system financial performance was evaluated using installed cost, Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) over a 25-year analysis period.  The agricultural revenue was estimated separately using projected tomato yield, market price, and farming costs. The 70% PV-only system generated 3,133.9 MWh annually, compared with 2,226.5 MWh for the 50% agrivoltaic system, representing an approximately 29.0% reduction in electricity generation resulting from the lower installed PV capacity. Under the literature-derived base-case assumption of a 29% shading-related yield reduction, tomato production was estimated at 28.4–29.8 t/ha. The agrivoltaic system achieved an LER of 1.39–1.42, indicating a 39–42% improvement in combined land productivity relative to separate crop and photovoltaic production. Both scenarios achieved an IRR of 11.8% and an LCOE of 3.8 cents/kWh, while the PV-only and agrivoltaic systems recorded positive NPVs of USD 129,800 and USD 91,800, respectively. These findings indicate that agrivoltaics can provide a technically feasible, economically viable, and land-efficient food–energy option for hot-arid regions.