DO DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS DRIVE CARBON EMISSIONS? EVIDENCE FROM MALAYSIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35631/JTHEM.1144003Keywords:
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Demographic Transition, Life Expectancy, Population GrowthAbstract
Malaysia’s ongoing demographic transition, marked by changing population growth and rising life expectancy, has important implications for environmental sustainability, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Despite continued economic development, managing CO₂ emissions remains a critical policy challenge in the country. This study investigates the impact of population growth and life expectancy on CO₂ emissions in Malaysia using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) theory. Employing annual time-series data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the findings reveal a long-run relationship between demographic factors and CO₂ emissions. The results indicate that population growth is negatively associated with CO₂ emissions, which may reflect Malaysia’s shift toward an aging population with lower consumption intensity, as well as the effectiveness of environmental policies aimed at reducing emissions. In contrast, life expectancy is positively associated with CO₂ emissions, suggesting that longer lifespans contribute to greater cumulative energy use and environmental pressure over time. These findings highlight the complex role of demographic change in shaping environmental outcomes. From a policy perspective, efforts should focus on promoting sustainable consumption patterns, particularly among older populations, alongside strengthening green technology adoption and energy efficiency initiatives. Future research is recommended to incorporate age structure, gender-specific life expectancy, and sectoral emissions to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the demographic-environmental nexus in Malaysia.
Downloads
References
Department of Statistics Malaysia (2023), Current population estimates, Malaysia. https://www.dosm.gov.my/portal-main/release-content/current-population-estimates-malaysia
Department of Statistics Malaysia. (2023). Malaysia social statistics review 2023. https://www.dosm.gov.my/
Dietz, T., & Rosa, E. A. (1994). Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Human Ecology Review, 1(2), 277–300. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24706840
Hondroyiannis, G., & Tsalaporta, P. (2023). Carbon emissions, environmental distortions, and impact on growth. Energy Economics, 126, 106923. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106923
Huang, L., Long, Y., Chen, Z., Li, Y., Ou, J., Shigetomi, Y., & Yoshida, Y. (2024). Increasing single households challenges household decarbonization in Japan. Global Environmental Change, 85(102848), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102848
Hussain, M., & Rehman, A. (2021). The relationship between population growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions: Evidence from developing economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(37), 51754–51765. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14288-7
International Energy Agency. (2022). Malaysia energy profile. https://www.iea.org/?
Khan, I., Hou, F., & Le, H. P. (2021). Applying environmental Kuznets curve framework to assess the nexus of industry, globalization, and CO₂ emissions in Malaysia. Environmental Technology & Innovation, 21, 101377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eti.2021.101377
Li, S., Wang, Q., & Li, R. (2024). How aging impacts environmental sustainability—insights from the effects of social consumption and labor supply. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11, 387. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-02914-9
Liu, W., Luo, Z., & Xiao, D. (2022). Age structure and carbon emission with climate-extended STIRPAT model: A cross-country analysis. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 9, 719168. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.719168
Mahalik, M. K., Le, T.-H., Le, H.-C., & Mallick, H. (2022). How do sources of carbon dioxide emissions affect life expectancy? Insights from 68 developing and emerging economies. World Development Sustainability, 1(6), 100003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2022.100003
Malaysian Green Technology and Climate Change Corporation. (2024). Driving Malaysia’s shift to a circular economy. https://www.mgtc.gov.my/2024/12/driving-malaysias-shift-to-a-circular-economy/
Ministry of Economy. (2016). Eleventh Malaysia Plan 2016–2020: Anchoring growth on people. Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia. https://ekonomi.gov.my/en/economic-developments/development-plans/rmk/eleventh-malaysia-plan-11-mp-2016-2020
Ministry of Economy. (2021). Twelfth Malaysia Plan, 2021–2025. Prime Minister’s Department Malaysia. https://rmke12.ekonomi.gov.my/en
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability. (2024). National Climate Change Policy 2.0. Government of Malaysia. https://climate-laws.org/document/national-policy-on-climate-change_4808
Muttarak, R. (2021). Demographic perspectives in research on global environmental change. Population Studies, 75(sup1), 77–104. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1988684
Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from a cointegration test. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. http://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
Nurgazina, Z., Ullah, A., Ali, U., Koondhar, M. A., & Lu, Q. (2021). The impact of economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, and financial development on carbon emissions: Empirical evidence from Malaysia. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(42), 60195–60208. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14930-2
Onwe, J. C., Ridzuan, A. R., Uche, E., Ray, S., Ridwan, M., & Razi, U. (2024). Greening Japan: harnessing energy efficiency and waste reduction for envionmental progress. Sustainable Futures, 8(100302), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100302
Osei-Kusi, F., Wu, C., Tetteh, S., & Castillo, W. I. G. (2024). The dynamics of carbon emissions, energy, income, and life expectancy: Regional comparative analysis. PLOS ONE, 19(2), e0293451. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0293451
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. http://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Rashid, S. Z. A., & Muhmad, S. N. (2024). Green initiatives and carbon emissions in Malaysia. Universiti Malaysia Terengganu Journal of Undergraduate Research, 6(3), 50-60. https://doi.org/10.46754/umtjur.v6i3.496
Redzwan, N., & Ramli, R. (2024). Carbon emissions, health expenditure, and economic effects on life expectancy in Malaysia. World, 5(3), 588–602. https://doi.org/10.3390/world5030030
Ritchie, H. (2023). Population and Demography, Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/profile/population-demography/malaysia
Rjoub, H., Odugbesan, J. A., Adebayo, T. S., & Wong, W. K. (2021). Sustainability of the moderating role of financial development in the determinants of environmental degradation: Evidence from Turkey. Sustainability, 13(4), 1844. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13041844
Roy, A. (2024). A panel data study on the effect of climate change on life expectancy. PLOS Climate, 3(1), e0000339. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000339
Saidi, K., & Omri, A. (2020). The impact of renewable energy on carbon emissions and economic growth in 15 major renewable energy-consuming countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 29164–29174. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09105-2
Saidmamatov, O., Saidmamatov, O., Yuldoshboy, S., & Marty, P. (2024). Nexus between life expectancy, CO₂ emissions, economic development, water, and agriculture in Aral Sea Basin: Empirical assessment. Sustainability, 16(7), 2647. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16072647
Shaari, M. S., Majekodunmi, T. B., Sulong, A., Esquivias, M. A., & Yusoff, W. S. (2024). Examining the interplay between green technology, CO₂ emissions, and life expectancy in ASEAN-5 countries. Discover Sustainability, 5, 456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00706-4
Shahbaz, M., Awosusi, A. A., & Altuntaş, M. (2022). The dynamic linkage between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in developing economies. Energy & Environment, 33(7), 1245–1264. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X211050708
Szymańska, A. (2025). An empirical assessment of the relationship between life expectancy at birth and carbon dioxide emissions in 27 European Union countries. Panoeconomicus, 72(4), 583–603. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN220906013S
Tamakoshi, G., & Hamori, S. (2020). Environmental policy and sustainable growth in Japan. Sustainability and Environmental Decision making, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-6093-4_3-1
Wang, Q., & Li, L. (2021). The effects of population aging, life expectancy, unemployment rate, population density, per capita GDP, urbanization on per capita carbon emissions. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 28, 760–774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2021.06.029
Wang, Q., Su, M., & Li, R. (2021). Population growth and environmental degradation: Revisiting the role of demographic change on carbon emissions. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 27, 1021–1031. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2021.02.019
Wang, Q., Yang, T., Li, R., & Wang, L. (2022). Population aging redefines the economic growth-carbon emissions nexus and energy consumption-carbon emissions nexus: Evidence from 36 OECD countries. Energy & Environment, 34(4), 741–762. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X221079426
Xiaoyang, X., Kanaado, M. B., & Epadile, M. (2022). The impact of technological innovation, research and development, and energy intensity on carbon emissions: An experience from BRICS and OECD countries. International Journal of Sustainability Development & World Policy, 11(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.18488/26.v11i1.2898
Xie, H., Tian, C., & Pang, F. (2023). Multi-tasking policy coordination and corporate environmental performance: Evidence from China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(2), 923. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20020923
York, R. (2021). Demographic change and carbon emissions: The environmental implications of population aging and longevity. Population and Environment, 42(4), 457–475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-021-00365-8
Yu, R., Wang, Z., & Li, Y. (2023). Impact of aging-related consumption trend on carbon emission efficiency in China: Mediation effect model based on industrial structure adjustment. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 114001–114016. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30400-3
Yunus, A. (2024, September 6). Elderly population to hit 17% by 2040, says Stats Dept. The Star. https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/09/06/elderly-population-to-hit-17-by-2040-says-stats-dept
Yusuf, A. M., Abubakar, A. B., & Musa, S. (2020). Energy consumption, economic growth and environmental degradation nexus: Evidence from developing economies. Energy Reports, 6, 1441–1450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2020.05.010
Zarco-Soto, M., Marcos-Gragera, R., & Martín-Baena, D. (2021). Urban population growth, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions: Evidence from Spanish cities. Sustainable Cities and Society, 69, 102846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2021.102846
Zhang, L., Li, Z., Kirikkaleli, D., Adebayo, T. S., Adeshola, I., & Akinsola, G. D. (2021). Modeling CO₂ emissions in Malaysia: An application of Maki cointegration and wavelet coherence tests. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(20), 26030–26
Zhang, Y., Wang, H., & Liang, S. (2021). Urbanization, population migration, and carbon emissions in China: An empirical analysis. Sustainability, 13(6), 3319. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063319
Zhou, Y., Wang, H., & Qiu, H. (2023). Population aging reduces carbon emissions: Evidence from China’s latest three censuses. Applied Energy, 351(121799), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121799
