DEVELOPMENT OF CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM FOR UNDERSTANDING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF MALAYSIAN GLUTINOUS RICE: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Abstract

The cultivation of glutinous rice remains limited in Malaysia which occupies less than four percent of the total rice-growing area in the country. In this regard, this study examines the complex dynamics of the glutinous rice system in Malaysia using a causal loop diagram (CLD) to understand the interactions between various factors like productivity, land use, population growth, and food security. To fulfill that, a CLD based on the system dynamics (SD) approach is developed to highlight the reinforcing and balancing loops that drive and constrain the system. In the developed CLD, the causal relationships are established by connecting the identified cause-and-effect variables. Subsequently, the causal signs are determined based on a positive (+) or a negative (–) sign to each relationship between variables. As a result, balancing loops illustrate that an increase in research and development (R&D), training, and government subsidies can enhance rice production, thereby improving food security and income levels. However, these benefits are tempered by a reinforcing loop that reflects the system’s limitations, which eventually curb sustainability glutinous rice production, particularly caused by the increasing Malaysian population. Furthermore, higher productivity and food security must be managed carefully to avoid over-exploitation of resources. The insights from this model are critical for policymakers to ensure the long-term sustainability of the glutinous rice sector while meeting the growing demand.