THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-LAYER PERCEPTRON MODEL TO PREDICT THE TOURIST ARRIVAL IN MALAYSIA DURING POST-COVID-19 BASED ON ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35631/JISTM.1142015Keywords:
Tourist Arrivals, Multi-Layer Perceptron, Post-COVID-19, Malaysia Tourism, Prediction ModelAbstract
Tourism plays a vital role in Malaysia’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP, employment, and infrastructure development. However, the post-COVID-19 pandemic caused a severe decline in tourist arrivals, posing challenges for the industry’s recovery. In this regard, this study develops a prediction model for forecasting tourist arrivals in Malaysia using a Multi-Layer Perceptron with Backpropagation (MLP-BP) Learning Approach by considering economic indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, and exchange rates. The study utilizes historical data from the Ministry of Tourism, Arts, and Culture (MOTAC) and the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM), covering pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. Experimental results demonstrate that the MLP with 2 hidden layers demonstrated the best validation performance with a positive correlation coefficient of 0.3685. It is found that an increase in the exchange rate, higher GDP per capita, and lower inflation may attract more visitors. Consequently, this research contributes valuable insight to the development of data-driven policies for Malaysia’s strategic tourism sector.
Downloads
References
Abid, I. (2025). Economic, technological, and institutional factors affecting international tourism in MENA countries. International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies, 8(2), 3548-3560.
Athari, S. A., Alola, U. V., Ghasemi, M., & Alola, A. A. (2021). The (Un) sticky role of exchange and inflation rate in tourism development: insight from the low and high political risk destinations. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(12), 1670-1685.
Das, S., Nayak, J., & Naik, B. (2023). An impact study on Covid-19 and tourism sustainability: Intelligent solutions, issues, and future challenges. World Review of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development, 19(1–2), 92–119.
Isik, C., Radulescu, M., & Fedajev, A. (2019). The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain. Eastern Journal of European Studies, 10(1).
Khalid, U., Okafor, L. E., & Burzynska, K. (2021). Does the size of the tourism sector influence the economic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic?. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(19), 2801-2820.
Kuri, B. C., Nahiduzzaman, M., Dhar, B. K., Shabbir, R., & Karim, R. (2025). Macroeconomic drivers of sustainable tourism development in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach. Sustainable Development, 33(3), 3918-3940.
Malaysia Tourism Key Performance Indicators 2023. (2023). Retrieved from https://data.tourism.gov.my/frontend/pdf/Malaysia-Tourism-Key-Performance-Indicators-2023.pdf.
Mubarrok, W., Dewanti, D. S., & Purna, F. P. (2025). Do external factors affect the level of tourist visits. Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Terapan Universitas Jambi, 9(1), 323-332.
Nor, E., Masron, T. A., & Hu, X. (2022). Exchange rate volatility and tourist arrivals from ASEAN to Malaysia. In Quantitative Analysis of Social and Financial Market Development (Vol. 30, pp. 17-34). Emerald Publishing Limited.
Orîndaru, A., Popescu, M. F., Alexoaei, A. P., Căescu, Ș. C., Florescu, M. S., & Orzan, A. O. (2021). Tourism in a post-COVID-19 era: Sustainable strategies for industry’s recovery. Sustainability, 13(12), 6781.
Othman, M. H., Mohamad, N., Ghani, G. M., & Ariffin, M. I. (2018). Malaysia’s tourism demand: a gravity model approach. Journal of Business and Social Development, 6(1), 39-50.
Şeker, F. (2023). Evolution of Machine Learning in Tourism: A Comprehensive Review of Seminal Research. Journal of Tourism Research, 3, 54-79.
Trono, A., Schmude, J., & Duda, T. (2023). Introduction: the future of tourism after COVID-19. In Tourism Recovery from COVID-19: Prospects for Over-and Under-tourism Regions (pp. 3-13).
World Travel & Tourism Council. (2025, June 18). Malaysia’s travel and tourism to contribute RM332 billion, 11.3% of GDP in 2025; 2024 levels at RM218.9 billion (10.1% of GDP). Business Today.
Xu, K., Zhang, J., Huang, J., Tan, H., Jing, X., & Zheng, T. (2024). Forecasting Visitor Arrivals at Tourist Attractions: A Time Series Framework with the N-BEATS for Sustainable Tourism. Sustainability, 16, 8227.
