ANALISIS PERAMALAN ARAH ALIRAN KADAR KEMISKINAN MENGIKUT NEGERI DI MALAYSIA SERTA FAKTOR MENYUMBANG KEPADA KEMISKINAN
FORECASTING ANALYSIS FOR THE TREND OF POVERTY RATE BY STATE IN MALAYSIA AND FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO POVERTY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35631/JISTM.1142019Keywords:
Arah Aliran (Trend), Kemiskinan (Poverty), Malaysia, Negeri (State), Pelicinan Eksponen (Exponential Smoothing), Peramalan (Forecasting)Abstract
Pandemik COVID-19 telah meningkatkan kadar kemiskinan di Malaysia. Kajian ini meramalkan kadar kemiskinan mengikut negeri bagi tempoh 2023 hingga 2032 dengan menumpukan kepada tiga dimensi utama iaitu kemiskinan mutlak, tegar dan relatif. Data sekunder diperoleh daripada Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia menjangkau dari tahun 1970 hingga tahun 2022. Kaedah gabungan digunakan di mana kaedah pelicinan eksponen untuk ramalan siri masa dan analisis awan perkataan untuk analisis kualitatif. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa Sabah dijangka mempunyai kadar kemiskinan mutlak tertinggi pada tempoh awal ramalan, namun dijangka akan diatasi oleh Perlis selepas tahun 2028. Negeri Kelantan dan Sarawak pula masing-masing diramal mempunyai kadar kemiskinan tegar dan relatif tertinggi pada masa depan. Ini disebabkan oleh jurang pembangunan wilayah, kekurangan tahap infrastruktur asas, dan kebergantungan terhadap sektor pertanian berkaedah tradisional. Kajian mencadangkan pelaksanaan dasar bersasar mengikut keperluan negeri termasuk pelaburan dalam infrastruktur luar bandar, pemodenan sektor ekonomi tempatan, pembangunan kapasiti dan kemahiran untuk menangani kemiskinan secara mampan. Diharap supaya kajian ini dapat menjadi rujukan penting kepada pembuat dasar dan penyelidik dalam merangka strategi pengurangan kemiskinan jangka panjang yang lebih inklusif dan berkesan menjelang 2032.
The COVID-19 pandemic has increased poverty rates in Malaysia. This study forecasts poverty rates by state for the period 2023 to 2032 by focusing on three main dimensions, namely absolute, hardcore and relative poverty. Secondary data was obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia spanning from 1970 to 2022. A combined method was used where exponential smoothing method for time series forecasting and word cloud analysis for qualitative analysis. The study findings show that the state of Sabah is expected to have the highest absolute poverty rate in the early forecast period, but is expected to be surpassed by Perlis after 2028. Kelantan and Sarawak are respectively predicted to have the highest hardcore and relative poverty rates in the future. This is due to regional development gaps, lack of basic infrastructure, and reliance on traditional agriculture sectors. The study recommends the implementation of targeted policies according to state needs including investment in rural infrastructure, modernization of local economic sectors, capacity and skills development to address poverty sustainably. It is hoped that this study can serve as an important reference for policymakers and researchers in formulating a more inclusive and effective long-term poverty reduction strategy by 2032.
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